A MEMO TO PRESIDENT TRUMP

On December 17, 2014, the United States and Cuba began the long process of restoring diplomatic, economic, and political relations after fifty-three years of hostilities and isolation. Strategic modifications in travel and commercial regulations, coupled with government-to-government talks on a host of practical matters, have since brought about significant improvements in our dealings with a traditional adversary.
The Trump administration will define its own approach to this and other complex foreign policy matters as it seeks to build an agenda that serves U.S. priorities. In doing so, we strongly encourage the administration to defer major policy shifts until it has carefully considered how U.S. interests would be best served in its relations with Cuba. We are confident that a close evaluation will confirm
that constructive engagement—including the reduction of travel and commercial barriers—is the best strategy for supporting the Cuban people and boosting U.S. jobs and exports. Change inside Cuba on many metrics remains slow. Nonetheless, further progress toward normalization stands the best chance of improving security just off U.S. shores, reducing irregular migration, enhancing the management of U.S. borders, and encouraging continued, positive evolution inside the island.
To reflexively reverse course could have pernicious consequences for U.S. economic and foreign policy interests and the prospects of evolutionary change in Cuba. Past policies of isolation did not elicit internal reforms or lead to political opening. Furthermore, history shows that the Cuban people, not the government, tend to be the victims of state-to-state confrontation. Particularly in the wake of Fidel Castro’s long-expected, but symbolically potent death, the potential negative repercussions of a dramatic aboutface—the danger of a reciprocal Cuban internal political and economic retrenchment—are all too real. The Trump administration’s Cuba policy should be based on seizing opportunities to further advance vital U.S. national interests and carefully analyzing strategic risks. Important considerations include: